Up or down? Having thoroughly analyzed each roster, here's how Pick Six Previews expects the Big 12's offensive pecking order to shake out in 2024.
Brett Ciancia
Since its launch in 2012, our Pick Six Previews magazinehas been ranked as the most accurate in the nation in predicting the upcoming college football season.
With multiple pages of coverage for each Power Four team, including charts, graphics and unit breakdowns, we think our content supplements the great work available for 247Sports subscribers and aren't alone in that assessment.
"I would encourage you, if you are into the deeper, more analytical dives, unique angles, a little more meat-on-the-bones than what you get in your typical preview magazine, go check it out," says Josh Pate, host of the Late Kick with Josh Pate.
Below, we've excerpted part of the magazine (you can click here to download your copy!) to run through whether I think every Big 12 offense will trend up or down in 2024.
Let's tackle all 16 teams.
Trending Up: UTAH
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 31
Two-year transfer rank: 37
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 65
Trending up or down? UP
In the 12 seasons of Pick Six Previews I never saw a team with such a brutal injury run. Utah lost 157 games to injury from their two-deep and every position unit was impacted. Their bottom five offensive ranking from 2023 will be short-lived and Utah is due for a huge statistical gain with their injured stars now healthy: two-time Pac-12 champion quarterback Cam Rising, All-Big 12 candidate tight end Brant Kuithe, and veteran running back Micah Bernard. Their addition of Dorian Singer gives the "throw game" a solid No. 1 threat on the outside.
Trending Up: KANSAS STATE
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 52
Two-year transfer rank: 62
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 35
Trending up or down? UP
Despite losing starting quarterback Will Howard to Ohio State, Kansas State feels they have a generational talent in Avery Johnson who starred with five touchdowns in his debut. A pair of Kansans in the backfield – DJ Giddens (Junction City, KS) and incoming Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards (Derby, KS) – round out a talented, dynamic backfield. They do have to replace their top receiver, tight end, and offensive lineman, but Kansas State should improve on their No. 35 mark
Trending Up: OKLAHOMA STATE
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 39
Two-year transfer rank: 47
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 37
Trending up or down? UP
If returning starters/production is your favorite metric for predicting year-over-year gains, Oklahoma State is your team. They return ten offensive starters, including All-America running back Ollie Gordon, quarterback Alan Bowman, and my No. 7 nationally-ranked receiver room. Joe Michalski and Dalton Cooper both landed on my preseason All-Big 12 teams, and this offense will significantly improve on their No. 37 rank last year.
Trending Up: UCF
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 56
Two-year transfer rank: 26 2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 10
Trending up or down? UP
It will be tough to improve on a Top 10 mark, but this is my projected No. 1 Big 12 offense for 2024. Gus Malzahn signed Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, and the "Cam Newton Auburn" comparisons are natural given his 6-foot-6, 250-pound size and skillset. UCF retained their 1,400-yard back RJ Harvey and 900-yard receiver Kobe Hudson and have three line starters back. Malzahn took back the play-calling duties and UCF was one of just four offenses in America to rank in the top ten of both explosive passing and explosive rushing.
Trending Down: ARIZONA
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 58
Two-year transfer rank: 45
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 14
Trending up or down? DOWN
This still ranks as a Top 25 offense but it will be difficult to improve on last year's No. 14 mark without two key elements of the pass game: receiver Jacob Cowing and school-record tight end Tanner McLachlan. Jedd Fisch's departure to Washington was disruptive and he stole starting back Jonah Coleman. Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan are the league's top quarterback-receiver pair.
Trending Down: IOWA STATE
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 47
Two-year transfer rank: 66
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 16
Trending up or down? DOWN
This one is tough because, with essentially the entire starting offensive lineup back intact, you'd expect a clear improvement. Iowa State should improve on their middle-of-the-pack national ranks in other offensive categories like points/game, yards/play, and offensive line run push, but in my opponent-adjusted, per-play metric discussed in this article, No. 16 will be tough to beat. The "Snowmageddon" game against Kansas State also disproportionately boosted Iowa State's ranking in this stat category because of an insane five touchdowns of 60+ yards.
Trending Up: TCU
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 33
Two-year transfer rank: 19
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 28
Trending up or down? UP
Following the 2022 dream season and run to the national title game, TCU went through its' biggest roster overhaul ever with a school-record eight players drafted. 2023 saw some growing pains, but there was a clear statistical uptick when Josh Hoover took over at quarterback. Hoover returns, the receiver room is packed with playmakers, and the line flips back to an asset for 2024.
Trending Down: KANSAS
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 68
Two-year transfer rank: 50
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 7
Trending up or down? DOWN
The loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a major here and I named him the top coordinator hire of 2024 (Penn State). There are still enough bright spots to land a third consecutive Top 25 offense – an extremely veteran receiver room paired with Devin Neal who is chasing the school's all-time rushing record – but they will not surpass last year's No. 7 finish. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has had an awful run of injuries the past few seasons, but this time around Kansas does not have their efficient backup Jason Bean.
Trending Up: WEST VIRGINIA
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 35
Two-year transfer rank: 38
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 31
Trending up or down? UP
West Virginia now has a rushing attack to rival their 2000s trio of Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Noel Devine. The new version has Garrett Greene under center, a true "thunder and lightning" pair with CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White, and my No. 9 nationally-ranked offensive line. This is a safe bet to finish as a Top 25 offense.
Trending Up: TEXAS TECH
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 37
Two-year transfer rank: 48
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 58
Trending up or down? UP
No one has had worse injury luck at quarterback. Texas Tech hasn't had a starting quarterback start and finish a full regular season injury-free since Patrick Mahomes in 2016. The hope is that Behren Morton's shoulder is 100% healed and combined with one of the nation's best running backs Tahj Brooks, this unit will surely move up from No. 58 in Power 4
Trending Up: COLORADO
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 50
Two-year transfer rank: 2
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 54
Trending up or down? UP
Another year, another wild transfer carousel in Boulder. This round brought in four offensive players that landed on my Big 12 "All-Transfer" Team: running back Dallan Hayden (Ohio State), receiver Will Sheppard (Vanderbilt), lineman Tyler Johnson (Houston) and lineman Khalil Benson (Indiana). Shedeur Sanders earned my 1st team All-Big 12 quarterback honor, the receiver room is packed with firepower, and Colorado should move up from No. 50 in Power 4.
Trending Up: BAYLOR
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 44
Two-year transfer rank: 30
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 53
Trending up or down? UP
Baylor's youth movement of 2023 is set to pay dividends in 2024 as they return as a veteran, experienced roster. The top three running backs, top five wide receivers, and four starting offensive linemen are all back in Waco. Head coach Dave Aranda made an excellent coordinator hire with Jake Spavital and his up-tempo, spread passing attack known as The Bear Raid should push Baylor well ahead of last year's No. 53 offensive rank
Trending Up: CINCINNATI
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 51
Two-year transfer rank: 41
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 50
Trending up or down? UP
The entire starting offensive line announced their return to Cincinnati, and with All-America candidate Luke Kandra as the anchor, this veteran unit will lead a stat boost in 2024. Incoming quarterback Brendan Sorsby (Indiana) was efficient in leading upset wins over Wisconsin and Illinois and should help fix Cincinnati's broken red zone offense that ranked just No. 115 in red zone touchdown percentage.
Trending Up: ARIZONA STATE
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 57
Two-year transfer rank: 17
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 68
Trending up or down? UP
After finishing third-worst in Power 4 last year, Arizona State is due for a statistical improvement. While they do benefit from the return of do-it-all Cam Skattebo, and a healthier offensive line, the stat gains will be modest in what looks like another building year for Kenny Dillingham's program.
Trending Up: BYU
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 66
Two-year transfer rank: 49
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 69
Trending up or down? UP
This one is a technicality, as BYU placed 69th of 70 Power 4 offenses last. year, meaning anything outside of the bottom two is an improvement for 2024. Receivers coach Fesi Sitake calls this his deepest receiver room yet, LJ Martin is back as the featured ballcarrier, but the offensive line and quarterback battle remain fall camp projects.
Trending Down: HOUSTON
Five-year high school recruiting rank: 67
Two-year transfer rank: 32
2023 Offense Rank (Pick Six Previews): 47
Trending up or down? DOWN
Donovan Smith placed eighth in the Big 12 in QB Rating and should again be a strength to build around, but Houston is going through a head coach transition and scheme change. Two of their top three receivers are gone and it is a complete rebuild in the trenches with four starters gone. Houston made a great hire with Willie Fritz, but the proven program-builderwill need some time.
About pick Six Previews
In 2012, I launched Pick Six Previews with co-founder Mike Nowoswiat. Over the past ten seasons (2014-2023), our college football predictions have been rated the #1 "Most Accurate" in the nation by Stassen.com who has been tracking prediction accuracy for decades.
Our daily, original content on Twitter has built a following of 90,000+ college football fans. That includes hundreds of Division 1 coaches/coordinators, former Heisman winners, thousands of current/former college players, thousands of high school recruits, and tens of thousands of passionate football fans.
After the release of my 2019 & 2020 Season Preview books, I was selected to become a Heisman Trophy voter, and invited to join the 12-person FWAA All-America Team selection committee. I'm a voter on several other national awards such as the Biletnikoff, Outland, and Nagurski and have a weekly ballot in the FWAA's Super 16 poll.
2022 was the first season I was eligible for all three of Stassen's accuracy intervals (10-year, 5-year, 3-year) and I placed #1 in all three. This marked just the 3rd "Triple Crown Winner" in Stassen's 30+ years of magazine tracking.
Get your digital or hard copybefore the season starts!
